Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.014551 0.016457 0.018535 0.020969 0.023748 0.026825 0.030494
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011727 0.014364 0.017490 0.021481 0.026457 0.032480 0.040354
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009874 0.012747 0.016346 0.021211 0.027650 0.035928 0.047456
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008592 0.011573 0.015481 0.021015 0.028708 0.039108 0.054374
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007622 0.010646 0.014769 0.020846 0.029663 0.042115 0.061259
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007055 0.010184 0.014602 0.021359 0.031552 0.046539 0.070592
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006383 0.009487 0.014007 0.021150 0.032307 0.049316 0.077690
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006045 0.009238 0.014027 0.021837 0.034451 0.054368 0.088867
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005426 0.008494 0.013216 0.021132 0.034300 0.055741 0.094138
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.004970 0.007960 0.012678 0.020794 0.034683 0.057978 0.101054
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004482 0.007329 0.011924 0.020021 0.034238 0.058742 0.105420
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004328 0.007234 0.012034 0.020708 0.036362 0.064132 0.118726
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004146 0.007081 0.012045 0.021243 0.038303 0.069457 0.132688
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003968 0.006921 0.012030 0.021731 0.040210 0.074930 0.147641
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003690 0.006559 0.011625 0.021460 0.040653 0.077659 0.157406
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003451 0.006245 0.011279 0.021261 0.041206 0.080637 0.168014
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003237 0.005962 0.010964 0.021091 0.041788 0.083719 0.179194
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003131 0.005871 0.011001 0.021610 0.043811 0.089943 0.198010
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002944 0.005610 0.010689 0.021398 0.044290 0.092961 0.209956
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002876 0.005575 0.010815 0.022093 0.046758 0.100511 0.233369
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002658 0.005227 0.010292 0.021379 0.046090 0.101057 0.240107
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002498 0.004983 0.009958 0.021038 0.046211 0.103385 0.251481
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.002306 0.004660 0.009441 0.020254 0.045254 0.103126 0.256306